Politics

GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030

DAMLA YAPILI MAY 2016

CAN EU MEET THE CHALLENGES AHEAD?

THE RISK OF CYBER WAR AND EU

Can we predict the future or do we learn by living? Before some ideas like existence of strong robots were merely on science-fiction movies, nowadays they are everywhere. If people can imagine such kind of things, they would be the reality of our life.

According to ESPAS Report 2015, people live longer and are richer than past. At the same time, the number of people in middle class is growing so inequality between people is slightly increasing. The vulnerabilities are rising with the globalisation process because many parts of the world do not follow up the sustainable development. Moreover, technology and digitisation are essential in the sense of administration of the scarce resources and security issue. Beyond these hypotheses, there is a significant challenge that EU should take into account nowadays: the risk of cyber-war.  Towards these range of obstacles, the only thing European Union might apply is the promotion of innovation and digital revolution. The report of ESPAS states that R&D (research and development) is a very important key instrument to grab an effective process. Investment on R&D and empowerment to the individuals in terms of schooling and access to the knowledge (scholarships and budgetary helps because of the expense of the education) is very important to have a dynamic intellectual society. In United States, these investments are much greater than Europe. (1)

In recent news about high technology and digital development in the world wide scale is making me concerned about the security of private social networks and the report mentions this well. Even in the international affairs, there are many risks like cyber wars to gain political power. In this sense, the technology is carrying out an important role as a power instrument. In recent years, there has been a discussion about a cyber war between EU and Russia. Do European countries be prepared to any kind of digital conflict? Recently, because of a real digital scale attack could pose dangers to national security issues become a concern state, as well as potential external regulations and military equipment will be added to the options available in their arm stock.(2)

  • Key Global Trend 3 – ESPAS, 2015
  • Cyber Defence In The EU: Preparing For Cyber Warfare? By Members’ Research Service ⋅ October 31, 2014

Until further notice, no digital attack death or is known not to promote physical harm people, despite the fact that very large and in this environment, get ready for contention in the digital space, and a constantly growing number of the state, national doctrine, digital barrier methods and a digital protective and has been struggling to create unfriendly capacity. In Europe, concern is growing about cyber attacks because Belgium faced with the risks of it against nuclear plants. Firstly Brussels Airport on 22th March and then in metro line, bomb attacks were occurred against critical infrastructure by cyber terrorists. In past, nuclear power plants in South Korea and Iran were subjected to these kinds of attacks. This shows us that the issue is very relevant and should be taken into account by EU. If there is any cyber attack against the nuclear plants, it may be faced with the possibility of leaking Fukushima radiation level. A very short time ago, in Ukraine, a group of militants had managed to cut off the electricity, the area by capturing a nuclear plant on 23th December 2016. Furthermore, a security guard at a nuclear power plant in Belgium was killed and stolen identity card. An attack over the Internet to one of the nuclear plants in Belgium in the next 5 years is expressed can be realised. (3)

To sum up, the Global Trends to 2030 report of Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) is an essential to think about some particular ideas such as technology and digitisation and their effects, which are uncertainty and unpredictable life, on international affairs and some actors like European Union. In my point of view, the high speeds of technology concerning in the last decades and the fast process of transformation from human beings to the robotic apparatus are   astonishing change in size and also frightening because it makes people feel like living in an unsafe world. However, if actors equip themselves in a good way, there would be more inhabitable world.

  • 10th April 2016, CHIP Online TR

Bibliography:

  1. European Parliamentary Research Service Blog, October 31, 2014

https://epthinktank.eu/2014/10/31/cyber-defence-in-the-eu-preparing-for-cyber-warfare/

 

  1. CHIP Online TR, April 10,2016

http://www.chip.com.tr/haber/avrupada-siber-saldiri-endisesi-artiyor_62091.html

 

  1. ESPAS
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